Humankind's future in the next qtr/half-century?

[zaab]

randall said:

I'd like to say things will be very bright and wonderful in 50 years time but, speaking as an engineer and scientist, it doesn't seem likely.

There's a reasonable probability that in 50 - 100 years time our current civilisation won't exist. If you google for 'peak oil' you can find out why. Strangely very few people are aware of Peak Oil, even though Bush's last State of the Union address explicitly stated research into alternative energy was a top priority.

For those who want the Cliff notes version:

- Mankind began to seriously consuming oil from about 1930 onwards. In less than 80 years we've consumed half of the worlds known, recoverable oil reserves.

- That would leave 80 years left if we were consuming at the same rate, which we're not. Even ignoring the rising oil use by China and India the rate at which we'll consume the remaining half is much faster.

- Theoretical fuel alternatives such as biofuels, solar cells, hydrogen fuel, and nuclear energy, do not solve cetain problems such as fueling aircraft. Even if we make alternative fuels to run cars and factories it's highly likely our civilisation will no longer have air travel by the end of the century.

- Hmm, not much else I can say that isn't making me sound like a pessimist. But it's an accepted scientific fact that world resources are limited, that they will eventually run out, and that we've determined it will be before the end of this century.

I watched a lecture by a nobel prize winning scientist (I forget his name, it might be Smalley??) the other night. He believes we are either at or near peak oil already. He made the point that it will take a monumental effort and the rapid development of technology we have yet to discover in order for us to maintain our energy usage. That's not to say that it won't happen, but things will have to change in a hurry. He also made the point that we need strong leadership to carry it through and unfortunately this is very unlikely until Bush is out of office. His efforts on alt energy, like the rest of his presidency, have been lame to say the least.

[Stranger]

walls said:

I don't think it is hyperbole to say that humans have never before lived in times like these. In the last 30 years alone our population has swelled by 2.5 billion. Technological advancements have occurred at a similarly stunning rate.

One gets the feeling that, if the recent past is any guide, the world 20 years from now will scarcely be recognizable from today's.

Do you think we are approaching a technological singularity? Or will perhaps some major catastrophe (eg, global warming, pandemic, nuclear war, supervolcano) get in the way and throw us back into a prehistoric way of life or even destroy our species?

I think technology will start to plateau out soon enough. Some say we're already well past our peak. Not that it'll ever stop dead, but I don't think the world will be unrecognizable in 20 years, save perhaps language, fashion, and David Letterman's hair.

As for global catastrophes, I concur with those that say resource depletion seems inevitable. This many human beans can't be good for anything.

[MrNice]

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

wow, this is scary but sounds reasonable
better start learning how to grow those potatoes

[skyhint]

We adapt to the world much more quickly than either plants or animals. When's the last time you saw a beaver use a power drill?

Yes!!! Exactly!!!!!!! We need to take example from the roaches!!! We need to develop artificial exoskeletons to protect ourselves from the stomping force of the planet. Let's stop kicking those poor little creatures creeping onto our food and learn a thing or two from them!!

Zaab is correct. Prepare for the worst, and live life for the best. To do otherwise is foolish, and unwise.

Now, let's learn from all those roaches and ants out there, who are truly superior life forms and know how to get the job done.

Try to use a power drill when we have no more fossil fuels and haven't explored other energy sourses sufficiantly.

I'd like to point out that no one species is superior to another. We are all specialized. Humans may have a great deal of intellegence but we lack in other areas. Do you have as good a sense of smell as a dog? Can you run as fast as a cheetah? Can you go with out water as long as a camal? Humans have tried to make up for their lack in certain areas with technology. But it isn't quite as conveiniant as being born with it.

[MrNice]

well, it looks like I will be buying gold soon

www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2006/cr021506.htm